Student Research 'Predicts' End of Coronavirus for Singapore in July

Student Research 'Predicts' End of Coronavirus for Singapore in July

"Predictions are uncertain by nature," the study further states, cautioning the public to not be "overly optimistic" on the predicted end dates.

With COVID-19 cases in Singapore hitting beyond the 15,000 mark Wednesday (April 30), parents all across the island are hopeful to see the end of coronavirus, and a return to their usual routines and activities soon.

And it seems like we may have a predicted “due date” for the coronavirus to be finally delivered and have its course completed here in Singapore, according to a group of students from Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD). 

end of coronavirus

End of coronavirus estimated to be in July for Singapore. Photo: iStock

SUTD Students “Predict” Date For End of Coronavirus in July for Singapore

According to data retrieved from coding programmes used to estimate the end of COVID-19 in the country, it is predicted that the end of the global pandemic in Singapore will be in July. 

The data that estimates pandemic life cycle curves for the prediction was retrieved from a “predictive monitoring” system, using codes from Milan Batista and information from Our World in Data, by SUTD students.

end of coronavirus

Graph that shows data on end of coronavirus prediction date. Photo: Screengrab from SUTD Data-driven estimation programme.

However, the study does come with a disclaimer that is “strictly only for educational and research purposes and may contain errors.”

“The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature,” the study further states, cautioning the public to not be “overly optimistic” on the predicted end dates as this may “loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection.”

Despite the data showing that the pandemic will be 97% over in Singapore by 4 June, we can only be completely virus-free in July, according to the programme.

The programme does not state if this “end” means that there will be no new cases on a daily basis, a dropping down of infection rates to single-figure cases, or if all patients are reportedly discharged. 

End of Coronavirus for The World Predicted to be in December 2020

Student Research 'Predicts' End of Coronavirus for Singapore in July

Data showing prediction date for end of pandemic for the world. Photo: Screengrab from SUTD Data-driven estimation programme.

 

The programme further predicts COVID-19 to be over for the world by 8 Dec.

According to a paper that accompanies the data on the site, the “prediction was started purely for self-curiosity regarding when COVID 19 might end in Singapore where we live and then has been expanded to cover other countries in response to requests of site visitors.”

The paper can be downloaded for further reference here. 

Despite Singapore still recording a large number of coronavirus cases daily, with a chunk of them from dormitory transmissions, and community transmissions not seeing a fall in numbers, there is still time until 1 July and it would be safe to assume that parents all over the island are hoping this data is reliable and we these results in due time, if not earlier! 

 

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