A Singapore think-tank, the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), has released its annual Haze Outlook 2023 report, predicting a high chance of severe transboundary haze in Southeast Asia this year. While it is not expected to reach the hazardous levels seen in 2015, experts believe that the El Nino weather phenomenon will bring about a severe dry spell, resulting in hotter and drier conditions.
This article examines the factors contributing to the increased risk of transboundary haze and emphasizes the importance of preparedness for individuals and governments in the region.
Weather and its Impact on Haze
Meteorological forecasts suggest that a heatwave during the dry spell could escalate the occurrence of uncontrolled forest and peat fires, leading to haze. Higher temperatures and reduced rainfall increase the risk of rapid fire spread, worsening the haze situation.
Governments’ actions and cooperation between the public and private sectors play a crucial role in haze prevention and mitigation. Effective policies and measures, such as fire prevention and suppression efforts, help minimize haze severity.
Bangkok in a heat haze at the end of the day | Image from iStock
Market Conditions and Agricultural Practices
The response of agricultural companies to market conditions and prices can affect the haze situation. Smaller plantation operators may engage in irresponsible land clearing and deforestation driven by price signals. Promoting sustainable agricultural practices is essential to prevent further environmental damage from haze.
El Nino Intensity and Haze Severity
Forecasts by the United States National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration indicate that this year’s El Nino is expected to exceed the moderate range, with a possibility of a “super El Nino” occurrence. Haze severity correlates with sea surface temperature during El Nino events, with higher temperatures increasing the likelihood of severe haze.
Despite the increased risk, the severity of the haze in 2023 is not expected to match that of 2015. The Indonesian government’s progress in fire prevention and suppression, coupled with strong policies, has contributed to a more controlled situation. However, continued vigilance and proactive measures remain crucial.
Importance of Preparedness
Given the predicted high-risk rating, the SIIA advises individuals and governments to prepare for potential haze occurrences. It is recommended to have an adequate supply of N95 masks and properly functioning air purifiers as precautionary measures. Past experiences, such as the mask shortage in 2015, highlight the importance of preparedness.
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